FY’23 Organic growth of 14.4% with growth recovery in Q4, as expected. Strong profitability improvement and free cash flow close to breakeven. 2024 Outlook: another step towards long-term objective

FY 2023 Highlights

• Ensuring strong performance of the roster of artists and labels in a wider variety of music genres at all stages of their development.
• Further building up leadership in Asia with the launch of the full offering in Japan and the acquisition of White Hill Music’s catalog in India.
• Confirming commitment to foster healthy and fair music ecosystem to Shape Music for Good.

2024 Outlook

• For FY’24, Believe anticipates an increase in paid streaming driven by volume and price, progressive recovery in ad-funded streaming as in Q4’23, additional market share gains given its appeal to a wider variety of music genres and track record. Believe assumes limited currency headwinds embedded in the market (c. -2% expected for FY’24e). Believe will further invest in its development during the year, while pursuing efficiency gains. Based on those assumptions, Believe expects:
  • Organic growth of c. +18%. Adjusted organic growth for embedded market FX of c. +20%.
  • Further progress in Adjusted EBITDA margin: c. 6.5%.
• The Group’s reinforced appeal is generating a higher level of attractive commercial opportunities and therefore of advances. The Group anticipates that artists and labels advances will increase in FY’24 in line with revenue, further building its long-term revenue base. Overall, advances will continue impacting free cash flow generation and the Group therefore anticipates free cash flow to be slightly positive in FY’24.
• Believe notes that it is the object of ongoing discussions around a potential change of control of the Group. At this stage, the Company is not in a position to assess the potential impact on its business and financial condition linked to the uncertainties created by the current situation.

Strong performance of the roster and signing activity reflecting top quality of service

Believe further demonstrated its commitment to develop audiences for artists at all stages of their career and achieved a strong performance of its existing roster of artists and labels in FY’23. The Group gained additional market share in most key markets and positioned among top 3 players for local acts in many European and Asian markets. This solid performance resulted in an Adjusted organic growth of +19.5% in FY’23.

Believe’s strength is its presence across 50 countries around the world with local teams on the ground who are fully part of the local music scenes and thus able to identify local artists and labels with the best potential to partner with and to accompany them at best in their development. The goal is to provide artists, regardless of their level of development, with the highest level of digital service quality in the market thanks to a unique tech-enabled approach and by leveraging globally the solutions developed centrally. The Group therefore resumed its investment in local and central teams in H2’23 after lowering their level in H1’23 to adapt to a more challenging economic environment. Believe’s focus on the quality of service resulted in strong commercial dynamism throughout FY’23, both in terms of renewals and new signings. Believe’s appeal to artists and labels increased in a wider variety of music genres thanks to their ongoing digitalization, which also supports the Group’s commercial success. 

Proven capacity of Premium Solutions in artist development from emerging to top charting talents in European countries

In France, Believe proved its capacity to develop artists at the top of the market in several genres, as well as to nurture emerging talents, with 5 debut albums in the Top200. Believe ranked #1 on local acts in FY’23, with a 29% market share for the Top200 thanks to a strong presence both in new albums and tracks, and in catalog. The Group had 42 albums in the Top200 (physical + digital according to SNEP data). Several artists of the roster confirmed their high level of success during the year, further building Believe’s strength in French local repertoire, including WeRenoi, JUL, Yamê, Nej or Djadja & Dinaz. 

In Germany, Believe ranked 48 singles in the Top100 and achieved three times number one ranking during the year. The launch of B-electronic (electro / dance) and Madizin (schlager / pop), respectively late 2022 and early 2023, allowed the Group to further diversify its roster in the country. Believe also renewed several local rap acts, including Raf Camora, the most streamed artist of FY’23 in Germany. 

In the UK, where the Group holds an emerging position, Believe witnessed a surge in the consumption of its roster with more than 35 billion streams during the year. The Believe UK team also won the Best Label/Artist Services at the Music Week Awards 2023 in H1’23, a true testament to the quality of service in digital. 

In Spain, the success of Iñigo Quintero’s viral hit ‘Si No Estás’, which is the first global #1 track for Believe, illustrated the growing digitalization of artist development and the strength of the Group’s expertise in this field. The key to success there has been a great partnership with the artist, his label and Believe’s key DSP partners, combined with Believe’s unique ability to combine strong AI data-driven expertise to maximize the momentum for an artist’s track at the right time with the right tools, supported by both local and global teams. 

The Group was also very active in Eastern Europe with a solid pipeline of new signings in FY’23. Believe has notably partnered with Azariah, the current top artist in Hungary and supported him in reaching new heights from being an Indie YouTube artist to becoming the biggest pop singer & songwriter in the country. The Group also developed its rap imprint in Romania and in Poland enabling artists like Rava, Guzior or Kaz Balagane to become top charting artists in Q4’23. 

Further building up leadership in Asia where the Group celebrated its first decade in 2023

Believe’s Group has played a central role in the structuring of Asia Pacific’s music market. With over 10,000 labels & artists³ signed across in Asia Pacific excluding Japan in the past decade, Believe has paid more than €700 million in royalties back to the local music industry⁴, further fueling the growth of a sustainable local music ecosystem by fostering new artist development, funding the launch of new labels and exploring new genres of music and addressing new audiences. Such impact was strengthened by Believe’s continuous effort to invest in and nurture a new generation of music executives and digital experts, being one of the first companies to sign deals with local digital music services and supporting its international digital music partners as they rolled out their services in the region. In the last four years alone, Believe APAC has grown around twice the market growth, thus contributing to substantially strengthening an increasing local content market share.⁵

Believe continued its expansion in Asia in H2’23. First, by building additional capabilities in Greater China, where the Group received 5 awards for Chinese rapper Capper from NetEase Cloud Music at the NetEase Annual Music Awards. Believe also launched its full offering in Japan where it only operated TuneCore so far, as the market undergoes an increased digitalization of local music genres. Believe also launched early 2024 PlayCode a new imprint dedicated to the Japanese hip-hop scene and signed 3 artists: ¥ellow Bucks, Red Eye and Issei Uno Fifth.

The Group also further expanded its leadership in India in December 2023 with a new investment in the country’s largest digital music market segment, aka original soundtracks. Believe acquired White Hill Music’s premium Punjabi music catalog, a partner since 2017, including songs from active top and established artists from Northern India, such as Maninder Buttar, Gurnam Bhullar, Ninja, Nimrat Khaira, R Nait, Shivjot, Akhil, Happy Raikoti, who all have millions of listenership on YouTube and Spotify. Believe also acquired the existing YouTube channel, which has a strong 23.4 million subscriber base and will be used to promote the back-catalog and the new artists signed with Believe Artist Services.

Launching new marketing program to position TuneCore (Automated Solutions segment) as a development engine for self-releasing artists

TuneCore Accelerator is a powerhouse marketing program designed to drive discovery of music, expand audiences, and promote deeper fan engagement. The program leverages industry-leading services powered by Believe’s technology, TuneCore’s marketing program, and innovative products. By integrating the program, artists gain access to an arsenal of industry-leading services and technologies and get greater support to reach their next development phase.

In Q4’23, the first quarter following TuneCore Accelerator’s launch, nearly 10,000 artists increased their streams by an average of 143% compared to the previous quarter and most of them were able to enter a higher market segment. This represents about 1 in 8 artists who have been enrolled in the program since its launch. Building on these early positive results, TuneCore Accelerator will be expanded to enable even more self-releasing artists to grow

Confirming Believe’s commitment to foster healthy and fair music ecosystem to further Shape Music for Good

Believe completed its third global employee satisfaction survey Your Voice. The participation rate was up to 81%, 2 points higher than the previous survey and the global eNPS (employee Net Promoter Score) increased by 7 points compared to last year. Talent is key and at the heart of the Group’s model and strategy, which led Believe to roll out several actions to increase employee satisfaction over the course of the year.

In the meantime, the Group pursued its focus on gender diversity and developing talent internally and witnessed a progression in all criteria retained in the CEO variable compensation:

• Gender diversity: 45.6% of women among employees.
• Training rate: 94.4% (in average, 11 hours of training per employee).
• eNPS: 15 (steep increases versus last year’s level).

Believe pursued its pivotal role in fighting against streaming fraud by taking a leadership role as a founding member of the Music Fights Fraud, by welcoming Spotify new model and decision to penalize fraud more strictly than in the past, by investing in new detection technologies and by reinforcing the education provided to artists and labels on the matter.

The Group also pursued its efforts to support greater diversity in the music industry and just released the results of its fourth annual study BE THE CHANGE: Gender Equity in Music. Part of Shaping Music for Good program, BE THE CHANGE has become a key milestone to assess the challenges faced by female and gender expansive creators and music professionals globally.

Adjusted organic growth of +19.5% reflecting the anticipated recovery in growth rates witnessed in Q4’23 

FY’23 revenues grew by +15.7% to reach €880.3 million, reflecting an organic growth of +14.4%. Digital sales increased by +13.0% in FY’23, reflecting solid underlying trends and negative currency headwinds affecting royalties collected and reversed by DSPs. Adjusted from this negative embedded market FX effect, revenues grew by +19.5%. The change in perimeter related mainly to the integration of Sentric contributed for +2.6% to revenue growth but was partially offset by a negative forex impact mostly driven by the Turkish lira and the US dollar (-1.4%). Sentric contribution has been accounted for in non-digital sales, which therefore grew by almost +50% in FY’23. 

After reaching a low point in Q3’23, digital monetization started recovering in Q4’23 thanks to a combined impact of reduced market currency headwinds and improved comparison base in ad-funded streaming. Consequently, Believe recorded revenue growth of +18.1% in Q4’23, reflecting an adjusted organic growth of +21.8%. 

Premium Solutions driving organic growth, revenue growth of Automated Solutions enhanced by Sentric 

Digital Music Sales⁶ (DMS) exceeded €1.2 billion in FY’23, reflecting double digit growth in Premium Solutions. DMS in Automated Solutions were affected by the strengthening of the euro versus the dollar. 

Premium Solutions revenues amounted to €825.1 million, an increase of +15.8%, mainly organically driven (organic growth of +14.7%). Adjusted from the negative embedded market FX in digital monetization, organic growth was above +20%. As anticipated, Q4’23 witnessed a solid improvement in digital versus the previous quarter. Paid streaming benefitted from price increases by several large DSPs and market share gains remained solid, while ad-funded streaming improved and currency headwinds affecting digital sales were reduced. Believe further demonstrated its capacity to enable labels to outperform their own market and supported artist development in a wider variety of music genres. Non-digital sales were particularly strong in the last quarter, reflecting the integration of Sentric, strong live activities in France and branding operations in Turkey. 

Automated Solutions revenues amounted to €55.2 million up by +14.6% in FY’23, reflecting organic growth of +9.9%, a negative forex impact related to the dollar of -2.9% and a perimeter effect related to the integration of Sentric self-served activities of +7.6%. The negative forex impact intensified in Q4’23, affecting digital monetization. The new marketing program TuneCore Accelerator was successfully launched at the end of the year, started contributing to Digital Music Sales in Q4’23 and will contribute to TuneCore’s revenue this year. TuneCore also increased the pricing of its paid subscription plans in December 2023, which will contribute to revenue growth in FY’24. Sentric is accounted for in non-digital sales, which therefore grew significantly since its acquisition. Non-digital sales were also significantly enhanced by a catch-up in TuneCore’s own publishing business in Q4’23. TuneCore was already offering a set of publishing services before Sentric’s acquisition. 

Strong growth in Europe, Americas and Asia-Pacific / Africa

Revenue growth amounted to +25.9% in Europe (excluding France and Germany) and represented 30.1% of total revenues in FY’23. Revenue growth was uplifted by the integration of Sentric, which was primarily present in the UK. Believe remained on a strong growth trajectory in Southern Europe and Eastern Europe. Digital monetization was affected by currency headwinds notably in the UK but was globally well oriented during the year in the whole region. The level of activity remained particularly sustained in Turkey, including its branding activities.

Americas grew by +17.4% and represented 14.6% of Group revenues. The level of activity in Brazil and Mexico was strong throughout the year, showcasing the Group’s success in the Latin American music. In the US, which is led by TuneCore business, the Group recorded strong growth after a slight improvement in the first nine months of the year. Revenues were already affected by the weakening of the dollar versus the euro.

Delivering profitable growth as demonstrated by the solid increase in Adjusted EBITDA margin

Believe also focused on improving efficiency during the year, carefully managing its investment cycles.

Adjusted EBITDA pre-Central Platform costs⁷ grew by +19.0% in FY’23 to reach €128.4 million (versus €107.9 million in FY’22). In Premium Solutions, the Group resumed investment in local teams in H2’23 at a higher pace than in H1’23 as revenue ramp up was clearer and added sales and marketing capabilities in Europe and Asia. The Group also expanded operations in Greater China and opened new offices in Japan. In Automated Solutions, the Group introduced new features and developed a new marketing program to support the development of self-released artists. As a result, sales & marketing at the segment level increased year-over-year with an acceleration in H2’23. Adjusted EBITDA margin pre-Central Platform reached 14.6%, an increase of 40bps compared with FY’22. This margin included growth investments in both segments, which represented 3.0% of total revenues excluding Sentric in FY’23 (vs 4.9% in FY’22).

Central Platform costs (€78.1 million in FY’23 versus €73.2 million in FY’22) increased by +6.8% year-over-year, and further decreased over revenue, representing 8.9% in FY’23 compared with 9.6% in FY’22. Efficiency plans enabled the Group to optimize its investments in the Central Platform over the course of the year. The Group pursued its investment in data analysis, digital marketing and AI-backed tools for discovery and audience development, but also postponed secondary projects. Better amortization of the Central Platform provided significant operating leverage in FY’23 as in previous years.

As usual some Central Platform investments are capitalized under IFRS accounting principles. In FY’23, total investment (P&L and capitalized costs) in the Central Platform amounted to €91.6 million. Total investment went up +3.1% year-over-year and represented 10.4% of total Group revenues compared with 11.7% in FY’22.

The Group’s Adjusted EBITDA increased by c. +45% year-over-year to reach €50.3 million in FY’23 compared with €34.7 million in FY’22. Adjusted EBITDA margin amounted to 5.7% compared with 4.6% in FY’22. This increase of 110bps resulted from the improved profitability of the segment and better amortization of Central Platform costs. Believe was steadily during the year at its mid-term objective level (Group adjusted EBITDA margin of 5% to 7% by 2025)

Operating income (EBIT) - Depreciation & Amortization amounted to €61.3 million in FY’23, a steep increase compared with last year (+36.7%), as acquisitions resumed in H1’23 with that of Sentric in March. The Group also made some investment in catalog, including notably the acquisition of White Hill Music in December. The Adjusted EBITDA improvement partially offset the increase in Depreciation & Amortization, enabling a loss reduction at the EBIT level compared with last year.

Free cash flow reflecting commercial dynamism and solid cash level at the end of December’23

Working capital variation remained negative by €23.7 million for the full year but witnessed some improvement in H2’23 as anticipated. Believe had additional attractive commercial opportunities to renew and sign artists and labels and provided additional financing through advances in H2’23. There has been less request to sign on much longer terms than usual as this was the case in Q2’23. The increase in advances was therefore limited in the second half and amounted to €81.2 million in FY’23. The current activity enabled the Group to extract cash from the working capital in FY’23, further compensating for the elevated level of artists and label advances.

Capitalized development costs were in line with previous years and amounted to €17.9 million on a full year basis (2% of Group revenues).

Free cash flow was negative by just €3.1 million in FY’23, mostly due to negative working capital variation.

Cash on the balance sheet amounted to €214.2 million at the end of December’23 compared to €303.3 million at the end of December’22, mostly reflecting the acquisition of Sentric, catalog acquisitions including White Hill Music’s catalog and higher artist and label advances.

In FY’24, the Group will continue to drive a profitable growth trajectory towards its long-term profitability objective of 15% Adjusted EBITDA margin. 

The revenue growth scenario implies solid paid streaming trends, which will combine new subscribers and price increases at some DSPs and a progressive recovery of ad-funded streaming. Ad-funded streaming is not anticipated to recover in emerging markets before the second half of the year. The growth scenario also implies additional market share gains across regions, and notably in countries where the Group is not yet ranking in the Top 3 for local acts. Believe also anticipates an improved currency environment for digital monetization. The Group assumes that the negative embedded market FX effect will amount to -2%, compared with -5.1% in FY’23. Consequently, Believe expects organic growth of c. +20% in FY’24. Organic growth is expected in Q1’24 to be below Q4’23 rate, which benefited from a very strong level of live and branding activities and should accelerate from Q2’24.

The Group will continue to adapt the investment cycle to market growth and will therefore size its investment in each key market. Believe will also continue to optimize investments in the Central Platform and increase efficiency through automatization. The Group will further focus on efficiency during the year, but margin improvement will be lower than in FY’23 due to the higher level of Tech & Product spending. As a result, the Group anticipates an Adjusted EBITDA margin of c. 6.5%.

Believe notes that it is the object of ongoing discussions around a potential change of control of the Group. At this stage, the Company is not in a position to assess the potential impact on its business and financial condition of the uncertainty created by the current situation.

The Group will continue to allocate cash between advances and acquisitions in the next months. Believe’s reinforced appeal to a greater number of artists and labels in a wider variety of music genres and the ongoing industry consolidation provide more attractive opportunities for the Group, which will therefore allocate more cash to internal and external investments going forward.

The Group is on track to deliver on its medium-term trajectory communicated at the IPO, including a 2021-2025 CAGR of between +22% and +25% and a Group Adjusted EBITDA of 5%-7% by 2025, implying a segment Adjusted EBITDA margin of 15%-16% (which is a "high growth period" margin, as the revenue growth is partially reinvested). Believe reiterates its confidence in its ability to achieve its long-term target of at least 15% Group Adjusted EBITDA margin.

The annual financial statements are available on our investor website: Investors | Believe

 

<sub>1. Alternative performance indicators are presented, defined and reconciled with IFRS in appendices 1 of this press release.
2. Adjusted organic growth aims at providing a view on Believe’s organic revenue growth after neutralizing embedded market forex impact: Believe assesses the forex impact on each digital market served by the Group to estimate the market forex embedded into its digital revenues collected from its digital partners.
3. Source: internal data. 2019 to 2022 period, APAC Premium solutions only (ex. Japan).
4. Source: Internal Data, Amount Paid by Believe group to APAC clients (Premium Solutions + automated solutions) between April 2013 to March 2023.
5. Believe APAC Premium Solutions client digital revenue CAGR in APAC territory, compared to APAC market digital revenue CAGR between January 2019 and December 2022. Internal, IFPI.
6. Digital Music Sales or DMS is a non IFRS measure defined in appendix 1.
7. The Adjusted EBITDA pre-Central Platform costs consists in the Adjusted EBITDA of the Automated and Premium Solutions segments before considering Central Platform costs. Central Platform costs account for the costs that cannot be allocated</sub>

We will host a webcast and conference call starting at 6:30 p.m. CET (5:30 p.m. GMT) today. Denis Ladegaillerie, our Founder and CEO, and Xavier Dumont, our Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, will present FY23 earnings and answer questions addressed in the call or submitted through the webcast.

Conference call details:

France, Paris: +33 (0) 1 70 91 87 04
United Kingdom, London: +44 1 212 818 004
United States, New York: +1 718 705 87 96

Conference ID: 88365

24 April 2024: Q1 2024 revenue – Press release to be issued after market close.

26 June 2024: Annual General Meeting

1st August 2024: H1 2024 earnings – Press release to be issued after market close.

23 October 2024: Q3 2024 revenue – Press release to be issued after market close.
 

1. Use of Alternative Performance Indicators

To supplement our financial information presented in accordance with IFRS, we use the following non-IFRS financial measures:

• DMS is the revenue generated from digital store partners and social media platforms before royalty payment to artists and labels.
• Organic growth accounts for revenue growth at a like-for-like perimeter and at constant exchange rate.
• Adjusted EBITDA is calculated based on operating income (loss) before (i) depreciation, amortization and impairment, (ii) share-based payments (IFRS 2) including social security contributions and employer contributions (iii) other operating income and expense; and (iv) depreciation of assets identified at the acquisition date net of deferred taxes from the share of net income (loss) of equity-accounted companies.
• Free cash flow corresponds to net cash flows from operating activities, after taking into account acquisitions and disposals of intangible assets and property, plant and equipment, and restated for (i) costs related to acquisitions, (ii) acquisition costs of a group of assets, that does not meet the definition of a business combination and (iii) advances related to distribution contracts intended specifically for the acquisition of assets (acquisition of companies, catalogs, etc).

2. Quarterly revenue by division

3. Revenue breakdown between Digital and non-digital sales growth (as reported)

4. Revenue breakdown between Digital and non-digital sales growth (as reported)

5. Adjusted Organic Growth (organic growth adjusted from embedded market forex impact)

6. Q4’23 revenue by geography

Believe is one of the world’s leading digital music companies. Believe’s mission is to develop independent artists and labels in the digital world by providing them the solutions they need to grow their audience at each stage of their career and development. Believe’s passionate team of digital music experts around the world leverages the Group’s global technology platform to advise artists and labels, distribute and promote their music. Its 1,919 employees in more than 50 countries aim to support independent artists and labels with a unique digital expertise, respect, fairness and transparency. Believe offers its various solutions through a portfolio of brands including Believe, TuneCore, Nuclear Blast, Naïve, Groove Attack, AllPoints, Ishtar and Byond. Believe is listed on compartment B of the regulated market of Euronext Paris (Ticker: BLV, ISIN: FR0014003FE9). www.believe.com

Forward Looking statement

This press release contains forward-looking statements regarding the prospects and growth strategies of Believe and its subsidiaries (the “Group”). These statements include statements relating to the Group’s intentions, strategies, growth prospects, and trends in its results of operations, financial situation and liquidity. Although such statements are based on data, assumptions and estimates that the Group considers reasonable, they are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties and actual results could differ from those anticipated in such statements due to a variety of factors, including those discussed in the Group’s filings with the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) which are available on the website of Believe (www.believe.com). Prospective information contained in this press release is given only as of the date hereof. Other than as required by law, the Group expressly disclaims any obligation to update its forward-looking statements in light of new information or future developments. Some of the financial information contained in this press release is not IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) accounting measures.